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Box Office Analysis

Thursday, December 21, 2006 • Hindi Comments
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First weekend performance of latest release

Three distinct films released on Friday - 'Kabul Express', 'Aryan' and 'Dil Se Pooch Kidhar Jaana Hai'. We had mentioned in last week's column (quoted verbatim here) that "It will be fool hardly to even imagine the film beginning on a record breaking spree a la a 'Fanaa' or a 'Dhoom 2'. A decent beginning (50-60%) followed by a good word of mouth should be good enough for it to sail through." The prediction based on trends, audience expectations and promos worked to the T as the actual collections were on similar lines too! The film did open decent and continues to be so which is quite fine for a movie like 'Kabul Express'. In the end, the movie should end up being profitable which is nothing but a success for the cast and crew of the film due to its theme and overall reach to the audience. One looks forward to such topical movies being made even further on so that Bollywood is strictly and firmly on international map soon. 2 Thumbs up to the team of 'Kabul Express' to make it happen. And yes, Kabir Khan is a director that one would want to watch more in coming years!

Second release of the week was 'Aryan' and suffered due to the reasons mentioned last week [delayed release, not enough buzz, other complexities etc.]. The film was never a blockbuster in the making even sans these reasons but at least could have taken a decent start a la 'Kabul Express' if not for them. Poor reviews didn't help it's case either in spite of 2-3 instances of a positive word for the film. A non-starter which is a disappointing outing for Sohail and Sneha.

'Dil Se Pooch...' didn't even get a decent release across India, let alone an opening and is a washout from show one.

Last week's movies

The writing was on the wall for 'Baabul' when it opened to a mere average response across the country. There were (some) hopes that sole release factor may just about work in its favor but that didn't happen. It turned out to be a lukewarm first week for this biggie that starred heavy weights like Big B, Salman Khan, Rani Mukherjee along with John Abraham and Hema Malini and in the end only 11 crores came in after week 1. In an age of such starcast fetching at least a 20 crore opening, one could still allow some leniency due to the film's subject. But 11 crores was still way below with Mumbai being the highest contributor at 2 crores [average] followed by Delhi at 1 crores [below average]. With not much buzz left the film in second week and 'Bhagam Bhag' coming next, the film is set to go down as a disappointment for the team.

From the past

After 2 excellent weeks at the box office, D2 did see a fall [50%], though of a kind that is on par with industry standards. With 11 crores coming in the third week, the film now stands at 68 crores and would already be the highest grosser ever by the time your read this report. Cynics may say that D2 has finally shown a fall in the 3rd week but the fact needs to be realized that 68 crores in hands means that an extremely large number of people have actually watched the film by now [with many giving it a repeat viewing] and you don't expect dozens of crores coming in every week. In current movie viewing scenario, a total like this coming in 3 weeks shows that the film has been accepted as a blockbuster both within and outside the trade.

A study in contrast to D2 is 'Vivah' which chose to come at limited prints and ever since then has been playing around the same print count. Though the drop [30%] was somewhat above its last week drop of 10%, it was still commendable with 'Babul' and 'Dhoom 2' collectively making around 22 crores. Rather than its epicenter of print count being in big cities [as like most of the films in their first stage of theatrical run], 'Vivah' is evenly spread out across the country that is helping it boast of decent collections from all nook and corners. Also, such a wide spread is ensuring that piracy is restricted too and theatres are the first choice for family audiences to watch the film. After getting another 2 crores in its kitty, the film has now crossed 20 crores and is on its way to be called a superhit.

'Apna Sapna Money Money' has one more week for itself before next comedy film 'Bhagam Bhag' arrives this Friday. The film got in another 15 lakhs in its 5th week and has been left way behind by 'Vivah' which started off slowly when compared to ASMM that made most of the money in its 1st week. The film is exiting at around 13.5 crores. Ditto for 'Don' which should be wrapped up after it completes 50 crores at the box office [which should be this week since it is just 3 lakhs shy of doing that!]. 'Lage Raho Munnabhai' needs another 6 lakhs to touch the 70 crore mark and it has become like a slow moving yet exciting cricket test match to see if that actually happens.

In the future

It will be a surprise of 'Bhagam Bhag' opens anything less than 18-20 crores at the box office. The film has been hyped beyond expectations and the only film that is being talked about today is 'Bhagam Bhag'. None of Priyadarshan movies in the past [not even his biggest success 'Garam Masala'] has created such a pre-release buzz in the past and one pines a lot of hopes on this Akshay/Govinda/Paresh starrer. It would be a disappointment if the film doesn't take a flier of a start [which it should in all probability]. The sole release factor only helps!

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