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Box office analysis

IndiaGlitz [Thursday, February 21, 2008]

First weekend performance of latest release

After OM SHANTI OM and SAAWARIYA, JODHAA AKBAR was the film which was most talked about when it came to predicting box office returns. Though WELCOME and TAARZE ZAMEEN PAR came in the interim and turned out to be blockbusters with close to 135 crores worth of business between them, none of the two films had as much anticipation quotient going around them as much as JODHAA AKBAR.

This is something which works as a double edged sword because with such expectations factor, any major film could go either way. However, at the moment it is still early days to categorize JODHAA AKBAR as a hit, average or flop simply because it saw a patchy release on Friday. Also, with Rajasthan not seeing the arrival of film, it would be unfair to give a verdict without the film being at least one week through. Though it is highly unlikely that the film won't be able to recover it's cost, one can't be too comfortable about calling the film a success either.

So far word of mouth of the film has ranged between fair to very good. No one has dismissed the movie, on the other hand it hasn't been termed as a much-watch either. This means that the fair to good opening of the film hasn't quite translated into extraordinary with progression of days since people are still waiting to hear more before jumping into queue.

This makes JODHAA AKBAR a rare instance where a film's progress into second week is far more important than the first week. This is because if the film sustains itself well into the second week, it would see a free run for many more weeks to follow due to negligible competition. However, the multi-crore question here is, will the film sustain well? Let's wait for a few more days to witness it for ourselves!

Last week's movies

If the opening of SUPERSTAR was bad, the days which followed were only worse. Though MITHYA wasn't too much of a competition, the comparison factor did impact SUPERSTAR. Moreover with patrons inclined towards checking out JODHAA AKBAR in the week to follow, SUPERSTAR simply went up the sky no sooner than it had arrived. The film has barely made 2 crores in it's first week which is lower than the first week collection of Rohit Jugraj's debut film JAMES. SUPERSTAR hasn't performed well anywhere and is at maximum a fortnight runner.

MITHYA has made decent profits in it's first week itself, courtesy it's small budget and over 3 crores in collections. A film that had it's target audience always set as multiplex audience in big centers, Ranvir Shorey and Neha Dhupia starrer MITHYA has done quite well especially in Mumbai and Delhi with collections exceeding 75 lakhs and 60 lakhs respectively. With JODHAA AKBAR as the only major competition for the film till BLACK & WHITE arrives all the way on 7th March, MITHYA has a great opportunity to further make a killing. All around positive reviews and word of mouth have only helped the cause further!

From the past

RAMA RAMA KYA HAI DRAMAAA has turned out to be yet another box office failure of 2008. After being a non-starter, it hasn't done well even in the interiors and has crashed completely in the second week with more than 85% fall. The film got hardly 20 lakhs more and is now folding up under 1.75 crores. Don't expect much happening for the film in DVD circuits either.

SUNDAY is safe, though just about it. In the third week, this Ajay Devgan starrer managed to show some resistance with only 55% fall. With 2 crores more coming in, the film has succeeded in crossing the 20 crores mark and now sits pretty at 21 crores. Though there are not many hopes of much more moolah being added on, the film has come as a welcome relief for Devgan whose HALLA BOL hadn't quite set the box office afire. As for Arshad Warsi, he can feel good because though he didn't have to carry the film on his shoulders, he has still garnered maximum appreciation for SUNDAY.

TAARE ZAMEEN PAR continues to be the strongest of the lot and is still earning in crores in spite of being eight weeks into the business. With a mere 30% fall and 1.5 crores more coming in, the film has now touched the 58 crores mark. Blockbuster! Meanwhile WELCOME too continues to be in Top-5 films though it's weekly collections were far lower at 35 lakhs. While the film's collections have now surpassed 75 crores, the DVDs have hit the stands as well and opened to a bumper response.

In the future

From now till 7th March (when BLACK & WHITE arrives), there is no few film opening at theaters.

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