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Box office analysis

IndiaGlitz [Friday, May 02, 2008]

First weekend performance of latest release

When most trade pundits were unanimous about TASHAN being all set to take a humongous opening, I could see the alarm bells ringing which indicated the otherwise. And this was before multiplex imbroglio. I strongly believe that even if TASHAN would have releases at the multiplexes, the opening wouldn't have matched the standards of OM SHANTI OM or even RACE/WELCOME/DHOOM 2.

Reason was plain and simple - the film was just not being promoted enough. In fact I would go to the extent of stating that whatever promotion took place, it was far from impressive with Kareena's waistline being the sole selling point for TASHAN. In addition, there was absolutely no idea given about the film's storyline or plot through television promotion. Surprising, since the film boasted of a solid star cast and hit music by Vishal-Shekhar.

All of this would have been pardonable if only the film would have at the least opened to a good response and fetched nice enough word of mouth. But let's do some reality check here. I can easily say that this is the worst movie ever coming from Yash Raj Films ever since Aditya Chopra took over the mantle of country's premier banner. Yes, NEAL N NIKKI was better. Yes, LAAGA CHUNARI MEIN DAAG and AAJA NACHLE had a couple of moments and some good acting. Yes, even JHOOM BARABAR JHOOM was far more impressive. And if we start comparing it with the films which got maximum brickbats last year, then even RAM GOPAL VARMA KI AAG was better. To summarize - TASHAN was simply exasperating!

Well, it appears that similar sentiments were shared by many since after an ordinary opening, the film had no option but to go downhill. Not a single soul has stood up and spoken in favor of the film. Of course, as it happens in case of widely thrashed movies, even those who have a few kind words to say about the film refrain from doing so lest they gets categorized in minority. However, the fact remains that word of mouth is so negative that TASHAN is bound to see a steep fall over the week. And less said about the fate of the film as the second weekend begins the better.

In nutshell, TASHAN which was widely speculated to be the biggest opener of the year, now risks taking the lowest ever opening for a film of it's stature!

Last week's movies

HOPE AND A LITTLE SUGAR was destined to be a looser at the box office, especially after the way it was promoted. No wonder it's meager release followed by an absolute no-show at the box office meant that the film collected a mere 11 lakhs at the ticket counters. Collections have been so bad all over the major cities where it released that it has barely being continued in the second week. An out and out trade disaster which has already been forgotten.

From the past

A relatively open week with zero competition coming from HOPE AND A LITTLE SUGAR meant that U ME AUR HUM saw a little less than 50% fall in it's second week. Though Devgans would have expected that due to a controlled released strategy the fall would be much lesser, a large segment of audience which mainly looks for 'dhinchaak' entertainment rather than sensible cinema hasn't quite filled in the auditoriums. Result is that the film did collect 6.5 crores more with it's total reaching 19 crores but that's not the kind of collections which this film deserved.

In Mumbai the film collected 1.25 crores though Delhi remained fairly stable at 70 lakhs. Since TASHAN hasn't been released at multiplexes, it has given U ME AUR HUM a couple of more weeks to breath easy since this Friday's releases are hardly a challenge by themselves.

In comparison KRAZZY 4 did fall heavily (as expected) with 70% drop in collections. Still, in the process it did manage to earn 5 crores more which means that this medium budget film is already standing tall at 21.5 crores. For a film which doesn't have a single lead actor per se and is made of primarily supporting/character artists of the likes of Irrfan Khan, Arshad Warsi, Rajpal Yadav and Suresh Menon, it is a huge achievement in itself. An above average success, KRAZZY 4 earned another ~1 crore from Mumbai though Delhi was quite low at just 40 lakhs. The film doesn't have much to gain in weeks to follow but is bound to do well on DVD circuits, courtesy kids falling for a catchy title!

After a huge crash in it's second week, SHAURYA somehow managed to stay afloat by seeing only 40% fall. With 20 lakhs added to it's kitty and the total crossing 2 crores, SHAURYA should be able to break even in the long run. What surprises though is the success of KHUDA KAY LIYE which is staying pretty consistent in the major cities where it has released and hence fell by - believe it or not - just 15%. The film has scored even in it's third week and with 40 lakhs more coming in, it has now crossed the 1.5 crore mark. A safe film by all means, KHUDA KAY LIYE marks a good beginning to films from Pakistan hitting the Indian shores.

ONE TWO THREE managed to stay on in Top-5 even in it's 4th week and has earned 30 lakhs more. At 18 crores +, the film should now be seeing a DVD release soon. On the other hand RACE has gained further in it's 5th week with only 35% fall. With more than 1.25 crores coming in, the film is now neck to neck with JODHAA AKBAR at 62 crores. Though a huge fall (70%) during last week had indicated that JODHAA AKBAR would end up enjoying better final total than RACE, the good run of the latter in the week gone by means that it would be the eventual winner.

Coming to JODHAA AKBAR, it hasn't been a pushover either even as it is battling it out in the 10th week. With less than 10% fall and 20 lakhs more coming in, the film is a huge hit at 62.5 crores and continues to work in favor of the selective Hrithik Roshan.

In the future

Three films release this Friday - ANAMIKA, MR. WHITE MR. BLACK and PRANALI. And one doesn't need a trade analyst or a box office expert to comment on the fate of each of the three films. Even though each of the three films belongs to diverse genre (ANAMIKA is mystery, MR. WHITE MR. BLACK is action comedy and PRANALI is social), audience is bound to skip them all in favor of, what else, but the 20-20 cricket fever. With zero expectations from any of the films coupled with unimpressive promotion, if at all there is something positive which comes out from the narrative, it would be quite pleasant in itself!

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