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Box office analysis

Friday, September 28, 2007 • Tamil Comments
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First weekend performance of latest release

While CHHODON NAA YAAR saw some last moment release reshuffle pushing it all the way to the month of October (a good decision), the other three releases of the week followed exactly the same pattern as predicted in this column last week. It was mentioned that "DHOL is expected to fetch a barely decent start (40%-50%) with potential to grow further...". This is exactly the range in which the film opened though Saturday and Monday shows were ghastly due to crucial cricket matches with Australia and Pakistan.

The film is just about decent fair form Priyadarshan and nowhere near some of his more popular work. Still, with no major release till 12th October when BHOOL BHULAIYAA and LAAGA CHUNARI MEIN DAAG strike, DHOL may just about manage to stay on to be the first choice of cine-goers when it comes to mass entertainers. Don't expect DHOL to do MALAMAAL WEEKLY at the box office which made consistent revenue for around 5-7 weeks and turned into a big hit!

There were chances that LOINS OF PUNJAB PRESENTS followed the same route as BHEJA FRY. Though it is far from doing a 7-8 crores business which BHEJA FRY did, it would still end up covering it's costs at the least since it is being patronized by urban crowds, it's target audience. A near 40-50% opening for a film like this is certainly not bad and some of the big wigs of the industry have taken notice of writer-director-actor Manish Acharya's debut effort and are queuing up to have a dekko at what he has offered.

MANORAMA SIX FEET UNDER suffered most at the box office in spite of good reviews from most. First and foremost it's promotion was one of the worst ever for Abhay Deol, probably even worse than that of AHISTA AHISTA. Secondly, the release came unannounced. Thirdly, the film was screened at show timings which were the most odd in the day (early morning, late night). If only these things could have been taken care of, this unique film would have managed some eyeballs at the least.

No one is claiming that MANORAMA SIX FEET UNDER was THE blockbuster in the offering but an opportunity given to it's target audience would have at least ensured that debutant director Navdeep Singh gets his due. As of now, the film is a barely two week runner.

Last week's movies

Add AGGAR and NANHE JAISALMER to be two of the biggest box office disasters of the year so far. In fact AGGAR could well take the crown since it released at a huge number of cinemas(350+) and couldn't even cross the 1 crore mark. This one stands as the poorest opener of the year so far with such a huge print count.

At 90 lakhs, the film would be fortunate to reach 1 crore mark as near negligible collections are expected in week 2. In fact the film couldn't even touch 10 lakhs mark in either Mumbai or Delhi, the biggest territories. Expect it's DVD to be out in a fortnight's time.

On the other hand makers of NANHE JAISALMER would have been tempted to release the film's DVDs the moment first show commenced. Standing at an all India total of 30 lakhs, the film is the biggest ever trade disaster between Bobby Deol and Sunny Deol. 2007 may have brought some good reviews for Bobby Deol [SHAKALAKA BOOM BOOM, JHOOM BARABAR JHOOM, NAQAAB, APNE, NANHE JAISALMER] but except for APNE, box office continues to be unkind for him.

From the past

It has been horrendous time for Bollywood currently with most of the films failing to sustain beyond two weeks at the box office. Add DARLING to the list. The film has folded up loud and clear as it fell by close to 90% in the second week and got home mere 30 lakhs. At close to 2.5 crores, the film is a 'gham' for Fardeen Khan after some 'khushi' for him in HEYY BABYY. Ram Gopal Varma gets his 4th consecutive box office failure after SHIVA, NISHABD and RAM GOPAL VARMA whereas Esha Deol, who was banking heavily on DARLING would now have to look elsewhere. Sad, because released at any other time of the year, this well made film could have been an average grosser at the least.

DHAMAAL has held on quite well in the second week in spite of huge competition from 20-20 cricket. In fact, if one looks at the collections of the week gone by, it was the only film to have notched up good numbers. At 8 crores (very good) and falling down by just 40% in the second week, DHAMAAL is now en route to be at least a semi-hit with 21.5 crores in it's kitty. The film was quite good in Mumbai with 1.6 crores coming in (compared to 2.5 crores last week) whereas Delhi was unbelievably superb with 95 lakhs against last week's total of 1.25 crores. A good success for everyone involved with the film and a shot in the arm for Indra Kumar and Ashok Thakeria who can now forget PYAARE MOHAN behind them.

RAM GOPAL VARMA KI AAG is gone; simply gone as it has folded up at 8 crores. Period. On the other hand VICTORIA NO. 203 and DHOKHA were not even in the radar in their third week.

After a 60% thumping last week, HEYY BABYY recovered decently to see less than 55% fall. With more than 2.5 crores coming in and the film's total finally crossing 50 crores, it is celebration time for Akshay Kumar, Riteish Deshmukh and Fardeen Khan who get their first 50 crores superhit. Sajid Khan has struck hard with his first ever major directorial effort while Sajid Nadiadwala too would consider JAAN-E-MANN has a dream forgotten.

In it's 6th week, CHAK DE INDIA has now overtaken what HEYY BABYY earned in it's 4th week. The film is rock steady with mere 30% fall in collections (simply superb!). Cricket and CHAK DE are working in conjunction with each other as the film has earned further 3 crores in the week gone by. At 58 crores, the film is a blockbuster.

In the future

Two young films - JOHNNY GADDAAR and DIL DOSTI ETC. - release this weekend. Out of the two, JOHNNY GADDAAR is expected to do fair business and an opening of 50% would be considered quite decent. Last fortnight has seen a splurge in the film's promotion and a 'unique' feel to it is expected to get an initial audience which should translate into enhanced word of mouth. A word of caution though - in the very first week of the film, there are two one day international cricket matches (Sat, Tue) between India and Australia. On the other hand DIL DOSTI ETC. looks like an interesting film but has been promoted poorly. It is expected to be a well made film but doesn't look promising at the box office.

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